By Ziad Abdel Samad (1)
In a historic moment, ten million people expressed their rejection of the war against Iraq. The protests that took place in more than 620 cities around the world were not in solidarity with Saddam Hussein, the despot and the dictator, but in support of the Iraqi people and in protest against a world order that carries within it war and tensions. It is a world order that increases poverty and that deepens the gap between the rich and the poor where social illness breed terrorist and violent movements.
The world is going through the most critical period of its modern age where the American position clings to war as a solution to the Iraqi crisis despite of the widespread popular opposition reflected in the positions of main countries like France, Germany, Russia and China in the context of an Arab official inability to take a unified stand. This was reflected in the failure of the Arab League in facing the consequences of war in the light of an Arab popular congestion that is banned from expressing their standpoint.
The drums of the war are beating at a time when the spokespersons of the American Administration and their allies are confirming that the military strike against Iraq is imminent and unavoidable whatever the decision of the Security Council's and the Iraqi regime and despite the results of the United Nations experts' search. This paper will try to show that quite the opposite, it is clear that a plan is being set in order to establish a direct guardianship system over Iraq, even if the president would decide to step down peacefully. This implies that American military presence would last as long as the United States and its allies are certain that arms of mass destruction have been neutralised. It is from the direct guardianship system over Afghanistan that the current American administration has drawn its inspiration for Iraq (2). Indeed, a plan proposed by the American administration to the conference (3) held by the Iraqi opposition in London last year, clearly describes the steps to be undertaken during the transition period. The plan was adopted by the conference with slight modifications (4) where American interests in Iraqi oil were not out of the council's agenda. (5)
I. AMERICAN PRETEXTS
The reports presented by the British Prime Minister Tony Blair to the general council and by the American Secretary of Foreign Affairs Collin Powell to the UN Security Council tried to convince the world of the necessity of bombing Iraq. The British General Assembly and the Security Council who were not persuaded by the justifications did not accept the reports, especially that the experts’ reports do not confirm the existence of Iraqi arms of mass destruction.
This resistance drives the United States to look for convincing pretexts to justify its war in Iraq by claiming that it has presented quantities of chemical arms during its war against Iran, which the US claims that they remain intact. The American administration equally relies on voice recordings of Iraqi military leaders and Bin laden to attest its standpoint and to justify the war.
In an interview with the Swedish television, Robert Fisk asserts that the war against arms of mass destruction should be waged against North Korea and not Iraq. He adds that the use of mass destruction arms by Iraq has always been welcome by the States as Iraq was using it against Iran and the Kurdish population (In Halabja) with American prior approval. It is clear therefore that the war against Iraq is not to remove mass destruction arms and is not in defence of human rights but for the sole reason that does not exist in North Korea: Oil.
II. THE GOALS OF THE ATTACK AGAINST IRAQ
Through waging war against Iraq, the United States aims at concealing its failure in its declared war against terrorism. Indeed, the leaderships of Taliban and Al Qaeda are still on the loose and their capacity of hitting American targets of operating wide-scale military operations remains intact. This is paralleled by the restriction of the elected Afghani president Kardai of controlling Afghani provinces other than Kabul. In an interview with the correspondent of the British 'Independent', the senior foreign reporters in Beirut Robert Fisk argues that the Allied Forces have failed in tracking down the Qaeda system and that their operations have been subject to daily undeclared losses. The German "Der Spiegel" asserts the United States has terminated the tracking operation of Ben Laden who figures on their most wanted list since the September 11 operations. This is paralleled by the American failure in eliminating tension that governs its relation with Iran that stands against American schemes in the region. American policies have equally failed to win over Iraq despite the siege imposed on its people for more than 12. On the opposite, the Iraqi regime seized the chance to restore its relations with some Arab and European countries that are increasingly opposing the current siege.
The second goal (6) is to exercise full control over the Gulf oil resources in the shadow of an American administration whose policies are widely affected by the American oil lobby (7). The President, the Vice President, and the Chief of National Security had always been active in their national oil industry and are impressed by the Iraqi oil production potential having the second oil reserves (8) in the world with billions of unexploited barrels.
The third goal is to defeat the Iraqi regime, which is regarded as a potential ally to the Qaeda organisation. Despite the ideological differences between the two regimes that are clear in the acts of the Qaeda and its allies like the 'Supporters of Islam' and the Kurds, the possibility of cooperation between them in order to launch terrorist activities against American interests remains high. This was further confirmed in the latest Ben Laden video. Although the US pretends to prove the close coordination between Al Waeda and the Iraqi regime before and after September 11.
Some of the direct goals are the direct military control over a strategically vital region, economically and politically due to its reserves of natural resources and of vital, yet unstable investment interests. This is because the United States perceives in the winning of the Islamist opposition in the Turkish elections and the possibility of Turkey joining the EU a direct threats to its strategic interests in the region. The United States is also concerned about the weakness of its main ally in the region due to the impasse that Israel has reached in the recent years in sustaining the peace process and its failure to contain and suppress the Intifiada of the Palestinians who hand on to their entire civil and human rights. These events are paralleled by a strong objection to the American military presence in the Gulf area.
III. AMERICAN INTERESTS IN OIL (9)
The oil reserves of the Gulf and of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran in particular constitute around 70% of the world’s reserves (10). The reports of geologists confirm that oil fields in the Northern Sea and in the United States will dry out in the next ten to twenty years. In addition to that, the cost of extracting an oil barrel per day in Iraq is less than a dollar and is around $2.5 in Saudi Arabia whereas its cost reaches 4$ in the Northern Sea and in the United States, besides the fact that the Iraqi oil is know for its superior quality (11).
The reports maintain that the American need for oil will increasing in the next twenty years leading to its dependence on imported. Whereas the US imported 52% of oil for general consumption in 2001, it will import 66% by in 2020, which will force it to increase the import of 60% of the rates that it currently imports. This implies an increasing of more than 6 million barrels per day, which means an increase from 10.4 million barrels per day to 16.7 million barrels per day by the end of 2020 (12).
It is known that the Saudi and Iraqi oil reserves can meet the needs of the entire world’s consumption. And because of the circumstances that Iraq has been going through since the discovery of oil until the recent times in terms of consecutive tensions and military coups followed by the Gulf War and the siege imposed by the United Nations, the Iraqi oil reserves is still considerable and is estimated to cover more than 300 billion barrels a day.
IV. THE AMERICAN WAR AGAINST IRAQ AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE WORLD SYSTEM
The League of Nations was established following the First World War in order to stop the breaking of a new war. The clear defeat and the division of one nation led to the breaking of a Second World War. It is worth mentioning that the League of Nations undermined its own power when it disregarded Mussolini’s occupation of Abyssinia and Hitler’s occupation of Austria and Czechoslovakia. By the fall of Warsaw in Poland, it was too late to the League to react and thus, the Second World War took place.
The United Nations was established after the Second World War to prevent the breaking of a Third World War. Soon enough, the Council was severely shaken by the events of the Cold War when the World became increasingly bipolar. This period showed a minimum of equilibrium until the collapse of the Communist pole, which cause a severe imbalance cause by the American interests in exercising control over the world.
The UN subsequently suffered from crises especially in the Middle East due to the double standards it adopted in applying international conventions. Whereas Israel was clearly violating all international laws and resolutions with American political coverage, the World system was unable to apply international resolutions that protect civilians and that prevent Israel from abusing human rights. The World system used however, all possible measures on Iraq, Libya, Sudan, and even Europe (ex-Yugoslavia) in order to implement international resolutions.
One of the biggest defeats of the United Nations surfaced when it was incapable of sending an Investigation Committee to enquire about the massacres of Jenin in the Palestinian West Bank last year. The decision of sending an Investigation Committee changed to a decision of sending a Truth Inspection committee with the participation of Israeli officers. The action of the Committee was held back when the Israeli Prime Minister refused to let it operate in the West Bank unless it complies to pre-set conditions. The committee was dissolved and the Secretary General renounced sending it and the decision was cancelled.
The United Nations' silence about the recurrent Israeli violations and its unlimited American support on one hand, and the insistence of the American administration to initiate exclusively a war on Iraq without the UN's approval on the other hand, can lead to the collapse of the international order and consequently the entire world system. The consequences of such events are unconceivable.
It is also worth mentioning that the absence of consensus about the war will have critical impact on organisations like the NATO and the EU whose unity and operation are being tested. This was expressed by the Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfield who labelled Western Europe as the Old Europe who is still struggling to preserve its ancient colonies. The hope, as perceived by Rumsfield, lies in the future of the Eastern Europe. The Arab league will also suffer of serious consequences due to its inability to take a clear anti-war position in harmony with its peoples political stand.
V. COST OF WAR ESTIMATES (13)
The research published in several sources indicate that the costs of the United States war against Iraq will vary between 99 billion dollars in events of quick military success and 1.9 thousand billion dollars spread on ten years. The war would also have impact on the oil markets, which in turn will affect the economic interests of other Arab and European countries.
- The military costs will vary between 50 and 140 billion dollars.
- The costs of occupation and peace preservation will vary between 75 and 500 billion dollars.
- The cost of rebuilding the Iraqi nation will vary between 30 and 105 billion dollars.
- In addition, the cost of humanitarian aid will vary between 1 to 10 billion dollars.
VI. THE ISRAELI LOBBY AND THE CALL FOR WAR
The event of the war will present to Israel an excellent opportunity to strengthen its unlimited control over the region after the destruction of the system that has always constituted a clear and imminent danger on its existence. Israeli leadership underlinethe need to launch he war against Iraq and call the US to demsolish all Arab regimes who support terrorism and has confirmed that a war is going to take place despite the widespread protests and despite the inability of the Security Council to take a clear stand regarding this issue. The Israelis have constantly expressed their desire that the war should be intensive, quick, and destructive insisting that Israel will take defensive measures.
The failure of the consecutive Israeli governments of putting an end to the Palestinian people's Intifada and to impose a settlement that would have preserved Israeli occupation of major parts of Gaza and the West Bank, will affect their very existence. The confrontation of a people that is leading a national liberation struggle will not be successful as expected. Sharon launched his first electoral campaign with clear slogans of beating the Intifada in a hundred day and of establishing a Palestinian State that complies with his own rules and conditions. Facing the obvious impasse it has reached, Israeli finds is increasingly important to alter the nature of its war with the Palestinians, rendering it a war between religions, thus using the events of September 11 as a pretext.
The American Administration tried to find solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian struggle. The American President sent one envoy after the other starting with George Mitchell, George Tennet (Director of CIA) and Anthony Zenni, the army general who equally failed to reach a settlement. President Bush finally attempted to present "the Map of the Road", a project that failed terribly as it could only offer a Palestinian states scattered and torn between checkpoints and security zones with no guarantees to the Palestinian people about any of their legitimate rights to end the occupation and establish have their own independent state and the return of the refugees and displaced.
Israel is also interested in solving for good the problem of Syria and Lebanon who still refuse any settlement. In the context of the current threats on the region, Syria and Lebanon are subject to increased military threats by the unstable Israeli government that is expected to expand the scope of its attacks at a time when the world is distracted with the events in Iraq. Under the clear pressure of the Zionist Lobby, the United States has included Hizballah in the list of terrorist organisations, which increased the diplomatic pressure on Lebanon and Syria for harbouring a terrorist organisation. The contradiction is such that the US had previously acknowledged the legitimacy of Hizballah's defensive actions in the occupied Lebanese territories in the April Understanding of 1996 that was reached after the debacle of Israeli occupation policies and the Qana massacres. Hizballah was consequently invited to participate in the Committee supervising the application of the Agreement. This confirms the unfounded American and Israeli claims that Hizballah is a terrorist organisation. Indeed, it is a legitimate form of resistance against foreign occupation with previous American consent.
Israel is therefore facing a real dilemma because of the current Intifada and its consequences on Israel since its creation in 1947 where the budgetary deficit reached in January 2003 around 8 billion Shekel (or 2.7 billion dollars).
Israel is equally witnessing the increase of reversed immigration. While the Israeli government has been exerting considerable efforts in collecting the world's Jewry to the Promised Land (14) (recently from the USSR and Ethiopia), opinion polls indicate that a great number of youth feel that they have no future in Israel where 50% of them do not believe that they will remain citizens of Israel in 10 years. The prestigious and symbolic Israeli military institution is also suffering from setbacks where 2 500 soldiers refused military service in the West Bank and Gaza. In addition, financial figures indicate that 20.6% of bank deposits or about 25 billion$ have left Israel, since a couple of years ago, which drove the Israeli government to ask for a 12 billion dollar assistance from the American Government to avoid the unavoidable collapse. Whereas the American administration demands the creation of a united national coalition as a condition for assistance, the leader of the Labour Party Haim Metznaa refuses to join a Sharon-led government in order to avoid the historical error on which the party was founded in recent years. Previous coalition with the Likud became, according to Metznaa, a political cover-up to the activities of the Likud and the fundamentalist Jewish parties.
In this context, the Palestinians and the Arabs are concerned by the possible actions of the Israeli government and its hard-line members in committing massacres and displacing more Palestinians. The displacement of Palestinians has always been the Israeli agenda in order to face the Palestinian demographic danger. In the even of the transfer of Palestinians, the military status quo on the Syrian and Lebanese borders will be disturbed, which fill further complicate the sensitive balance of the region.
VII. CONCLUDING REMARKS
In a paper delivered at the World Social Forum, Noam Chomsky argues that during presidential elections, Republicans had always been used to distracting he American public opinion from essential issues like social security, health, and education whole opposing raising taxes to meet these services. Because of these policies, Republicans have always driven economic deficit to the highest rates, waging each time a war against terror. This is what Roland Reagan attempted to do in 1981 when he waged a war against Libya, Nicaragua, and Granada. The same policy was practiced by Bush senior when he waged a war against terror in the Desert Storm and this is exactly what Bush Junior is doing besides his first war "against drugs" that has proven disastrous, especially regarding constant undeclared military interventions in Central America, especially in Colombia.
The attacks of September 11 presented a pretext to realise the historical dream that the American Foreign Secretary conceived after the Second World War and that is to control the Persian Gulf's black gold, which it considers "the source of strategic power and one of the most valuable resources of the world".
In conclusion, I would like to refer to the Canadian opinion polls discusses in the Chomsky's paper indicating that a third of the Canadians believe that the US constitute the biggest threat to the World, which is twice the rate of those who believe that Iraq or the Qaeda constitute the same threat. The other poll conducted by the Time Magazine indicate that 80% of Europeans believe that the US constitute the biggest threat to the world, where 10% believed that Iraq and North Korea present the same danger.
The British Labour MP Alice Mahone states that the international oligarchy has no right to plan an attack against Iraq, forcing the vast majority to join a war they strongly oppose and to accept an adventure of unconceivable consequences. Will our joint appeal be heard?
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(1) Executive Director of the Arab NGO Network for Development (ANND). The Author is grateful to Ms. Zeina Halabi for her assistance.
(2) A former military strategist, retired Col. Scott Feil, stressed the need for the United States to reinforce its commitment to the stability and security of the region. In a post-Saddam Iraq, Feil recommended that the Iraqi security apparatus be removed. During the transitional period, Feil recommended that a U.S. security force of 75,000 personnel be placed in Iraq to patrol and protect large cities, borders with Iran and Syria, the Euphrates and Tigris rivers and the oil fields. In addition, 4,000 international police monitors should join these forces. Feil estimated the total cost of this security proposal could reach $16 billion. Feil also stressed that post-conflict reconstruction requires international cooperation and involvement. "The international community should begin now in planning and assigning roles and key tasks," he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Program of the Association of the United States Army. (By Ghada Al Najjar, "Senate Holds Hearings on Reconstruction of Post-Saddam Iraq", August 2nd, 2002)
(3) The Iraqi opposition conference which was held in London on December 15- 16 declared the names of 75 figures who were assigned to perform tasks relating to the provisional period after the collapse of the Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and before founding the new regime which is agreed to be federal democratic. The council which had a big share in the follow up committee rejected however an American proposal to train and arm the Iraqi opposition. Participants in the conference said that the special US delegate Zalmai Khalil Zada threatened that the US will resort to other alternatives, including the option of appointing a military ruler in Iraq (after toppling the current regime ) if this conference will not end into an agreement. (From Arab News, "On the London's Iraqi opposition conference", December 18, 2002).
(4) For example, the Bush administration wanted the opposition to agree to play “a prominent” role in regime change. But the agreed text speaks of the opposition’s role being “dominant”. Also, while the US had wanted Islam described in the context of the identity of the people of Iraq, the conference voted for the phrase: “The Islamic religion is one of the pillars of the state and the shari'a is a major source of legislation.” The conference also stressed the role of Islam in Iraq’s culture and education system (The Middle East Economic Survey, VOL. XLV No 51/52 23/30-December-2002).
(5) In fact, oil company executives have been quietly meeting with U.S.-backed Iraqi opposition leaders. According to Ahmed Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, “The future democratic government in Iraq will be grateful to the United States for helping the Iraqi people liberate themselves and getting rid of Saddam.” And he added that “American companies, we expect, will play an important and leading role in the future oil situation in Iraq.” (in "Iraq: Linchpin of a New Oil Order" by Micheal Renner, World Watch Institute).
(6) "Les vrais desseins de M. George Bush" in Le Monde Diplomatique, November 2002.
(7) In 1999, General Anthony C. Zinni, then the head of the U.S. Central Command, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Persian Gulf region is of “vital interest” to the U.S. and that the country “must have free access to the region’s resources (in "Iraq: Linchpin of a New Oil Order" by Micheal Renner, World Watch Institute).
(8) The Guardian, January 23rd, 2003.
(9) The American administration is currently represented by people who are closely linked to the Oil industry that has the biggest lobbying power in the US (the Jewish and the Arms Lobby being as strong). President George Bush, the owner of “Arbusto”, sold his almost bankrupt company to “Spectrum” who assigned him in its board of directors due to its close links with the Bush family. Before taking office, Vice President Cheney was general manager of “Haliburton” that offers services to oil companies. The Chief of National Security, Condoleesa Rice was member of the “Chevron’s” board of directors. The current Secretary of Trade, Don Evans was president of “Tom Brown Corporation” that produces 1.2 million oil barrels daily. Gal Norton works as a lawyer at “Delta Petroleum” and heads an environmental organisation called the “Coalition of Republican Environmentalists” that is funded by “B.P. Amoco”.
(10) The oil reserves in Islamic countries like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, and Indonesia is about 95% of the world’s reserves. - Robert Fisk.
(11) The Guardian, February 2nd, 2003
(12) In reference to the Vice President report of 2001, issued when Dick Cheney was Secretary of Energy in the Clinton administration, The Guardian, January 23rd, 2003.
(13) Siobhan McDonough: Associated Press (AP), December 6
(14) The Israeli election results indicated a negative balance of 550 000 Israelis since 1999.
