The Arab world is waiting and watching carefully to see what the United States will do next in the Middle East. The US, it is widely believed, will find some excuse to attack Syria, or perhaps Iran.
'Maybe they will create a Saddam Hussein look-alike, plant him in Syria, and attack,' says Omar Dalal, a Syrian national who works as a grocer in Lebanon. 'Or maybe they will plant some weapons of mass destruction. Or maybe they will create some other excuse. Or maybe they'll go for Iran first. Who knows?'
Omar is half-joking but his scepticism is real. He recently went to Syria, fearing a US attack. 'I rushed to be with my family in case something happens. But nothing did. So I came back to Lebanon.'
One concern among Arabs is the way the US and UK governments may have used intelligence reports on Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programme to make their case for war in Iraq. Both governments face mounting criticism over claims that they may have spiced up the evidence in their so-called 'dodgy dossiers' on Iraqi weapons.
People in the Middle East now fear that other such dossiers - dodgy or otherwise - will make an appearance in the region.
'I don't think there is any policy based on principles,' says Farid Khazen, professor of politics at the American University of Beirut. 'The US administration went very far to come out with all kinds of excuses and pretexts to go to war [in Iraq].'
While the Syrians are wondering if and when they will be targeted, many Lebanese are convinced that the main reason to attack Syria is to abolish the Lebanese Shiite militant group, Hizbullah. The politico-religious party is credited with helping end Israel's 22-year occupation in south Lebanon. But Hizbullah's continued existence remains a thorn in Israel's side.
Syria is the main power broker in Lebanon, backed up by some 15,000 troops deployed in the country, and is seen as a staunch supporter of Hizbullah.
'[US President George W] Bush knows that Syria does not control Hizbullah,' protests George Jabbour, a member of the Syrian parliament and political analyst. 'Hizbullah is a Lebanese party. It makes its own decisions.' However, he adds, 'if the US wants to use military power against Syria it has all sorts of excuses to do so.'
Diplomats in Beirut say that Israel has compiled a list of grievances against Hizbullah, including its periodic attacks against Israeli forces, its alleged missile build-up in southern Lebanon and its alleged assistance to the Palestinian intifada (uprising).
The file was shown last year to US officials to enlist their diplomatic support against Syria and Lebanon. Analysts and diplomats believe the dossier could be made public to justify a military campaign waged by Israel against Hizbullah.
According to Sateh Noureddine, a columnist for Lebanon's As-Safir daily newspaper, 'They [Israel] have said themselves several times that they have given information about alleged weapons in Syria to the Americans. Their objective is to deteriorate any relations between Syria and the US.'
Another potential 'dodgy dossier' looms ahead in the ongoing row over the mystery of Iraq's supposed arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. The BBC reported on 10 July that senior sources in the British government say they no longer expect to find these weapons in Iraq.
Commentators in the Middle East think it's only a short step from there to accusing Syria of hiding Saddam Hussein's WMD. Before the Iraq war, several reports emerged in the US and Israeli media suggesting that WMD had been trucked across the border for safekeeping in Syria to avoid the recently returned UN weapons inspectors. Some Israeli newspapers speculated that the WMD had even travelled as far as Lebanon and were in the hands of Hizbullah, a claim that remains unproven.
'At one point the scenario towards Iraq was being repeated with Syria,' Noureddine says. 'The Americans were saying that they have evidence that Syria has hidden weapons. But in the last few days, the Bush administration seems to be more careful with these accusations.'
But analysts warn the US may still choose to renew its verbal attack. 'It is an option that the US may use if need be,' Khazen says. 'We cannot rule it out.'
In early July, the US Congress deferred for a second time the Syria Accountability Act, a bill that would impose sanctions on Damascus unless it fulfils a number of demands. The demands include withdrawing support for Hizbullah and militant Palestinian groups, withdrawing its forces from Lebanon, ending its alleged chemical and biological weapons programme and making a greater effort to strike a peace deal with Israel.
Although no specific reason was given for the move, diplomats in Beirut and Washington say the Bush administration is giving Syria one final chance.
'We're not seeking cosmetic changes in the region; rather we're looking for substantial changes in the political makeup of the entire region and Syria must take measures to implement key changes in its policies to coincide with recent developments and facts on the ground,' US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs William Burns said.
Burns said members of the US Congress were very concerned about Syria's policies in the region and that Washington shared this concern. How things progress from this point on depends on Damascus, he said.
'We are not afraid of this because we know that we have clean hands,' said Mohamed Aziz Chukri, professor of international law at Damascus University. 'We don't need a bill of health from the US administration. There are things that we have to do, should do and are doing - for example, political and economic reforms. But the Americans have no business interfering. These are pretexts to justify their rather unholy ambitions [in the Middle East].'
'There is a lingering concern but we have become accustomed to the American heat,' he added.
And since the US has now turned its attention to Iran, focusing on the Islamic Republic's alleged nuclear programme, Syrians feel they are off the hook - at least for the time being. - Third World Network Features
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(*) About the writer: Reem Haddad is a freelance Lebanese journalist who was formerly with the Daily Star in Beirut.
The above article first appeared in Panos Features (July 2003, 'Who's Next? Dodgy Dossier Fear Haunts Middle East').
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